Measure D's "No Tax Rate Increase" Pitch, Checked: $300 Million Borrowed, About $600 Million Repaid

Natomas Unified's Nov. 3 school bond would not stack a new rate on top of today's. It would keep a school bond tax running into the 2050s instead of letting it shrink as older bonds are paid off. Here is the wallet math.

Measure D would repay about $2 for every $1 borrowed. Credit: Sacconews original.

The Yes on Measure D campaign site, VoteNatomasKids.com, is back up, and its main promise is simple: $300 million for Natomas schools "without increasing the tax rate." Its checklist ends with "No tax rate increase."

That can be true and still miss what matters most to owners. (New to Measure D? Start with our earlier Measure D explainer on what the bond would buy and what it costs per household.)

What the county's numbers say

The official Tax Rate Statement in the Sacramento County voter guide estimates Measure D would levy an average of $59.38 per $100,000 of assessed value, with a high of $60 per $100,000 first applying in FY2027-28. Collection is projected to end in FY2053-54. If every bond is sold, principal plus interest totals $599,856,974. The ballot question says the levy would raise about $22 million a year while bonds are outstanding.

Borrow $300 million, repay about $600 million: roughly $2 back for every $1.

What "no rate increase" usually means

Natomas owners already pay for older NUSD bonds. In FY2025-26 that combined rate was $121.60 per $100,000 of assessed value, according to the county's voter-approved debt rate schedule. By bond series, it breaks down like this:

Measure L (2018) bonds: $32.30, with final maturities from 2045 to 2050
Measure J (2014) bonds: $12.00, final maturities in 2043
Refinancing bonds covering older 2002- and 2006-era debt plus part of Measure J: $77.30, final maturities from 2030 to 2035

Maturity years come from NUSD's 2024-25 audited financial statements. The same audit schedules about $136 million in payments on existing bonds from FY2030-31 through FY2034-35, then about $71 million over the following five years. Payments end in 2050. The old-debt bill roughly halves after the mid-2030s.

Old NUSD bonds roll off while Measure D would run to 2054 (illustrative)

Illustrative: existing NUSD bond rates by series and assumed roll-off, with Measure D shown separately. The April 2026 refunding may have shifted the curve. Credit: Sacconews original.

That is the room a "no rate increase" bond typically fills. It means the new levy phases in as old debt falls away, so the school bond rate stays near today's level instead of dropping. Owners keep paying for decades. They just don't see a jump.

Caveat: NUSD sold $77.05 million in refunding bonds in April 2026, after that audit, and FY2026-27 county rates are not yet posted, so the curve may have shifted.

The case for Yes

The ballot argument in favor is signed by State Sen. Angelique Ashby, NUSD board president Micah Grant, Sacramento Vice Mayor Karina Talamantes and Councilmember Lisa Kaplan. It says: "Thanks to Natomas Unified School District's strong fiscal stewardship, Measure D will not raise your tax rate. Most homes will see no change to their rate; some may see a slight reduction." NUSD says it has saved over $49 million through refinancing and kept tax rates "significantly below voter-approved limits."

The money would go to roofs, heating and air systems, security, disability access, career-technical classrooms and space for growth, with a citizens' oversight committee, annual audits and no bond money for administrator salaries.

No argument against Measure D was filed, and no rebuttals were filed. The Sacramento County Democratic Party endorses Yes. The Sacramento Bee listed Measure D in its Nov. 3 local races guide. It needs 55% to pass.

Wallet math

The levy is charged on assessed value, not market value. Under Prop 13, assessed value generally starts at your purchase price and can rise no more than 2% a year, so longtime owners often sit well below what their home would sell for (Board of Equalization). Use the assessed value on your tax bill.

The math: assessed value ÷ $100,000 × rate.

Assessed value	At $59.38 (average)	At $60 (projected high)
$300,000	3 × $59.38 = $178.14	3 × $60 = $180.00
$450,000	4.5 × $59.38 = $267.21	4.5 × $60 = $270.00
$600,000	6 × $59.38 = $356.28	6 × $60 = $360.00
$800,000	8 × $59.38 = $475.04	8 × $60 = $480.00

If collections run from FY2027-28 through FY2053-54, that is 27 years. A $450,000 assessment at the $59.38 average comes to about $7,215 ($267.21 × 27), before the annual assessment increases Prop 13 allows.

What Measure D adds up to for one parcel and for the whole bond

A $450,000 assessment at the $59.38 average is about $7,215 over 27 years; at the $60 high, about $7,290. Credit: Sacconews original.

Stacking: Measure H is on the same ballot

Many Natomas parcels also sit inside the Los Rios Community College District's Measure H area. That $1.1 billion bond carries an estimated average levy of $16.55 per $100,000 through FY2050-51, per the county voter guide, and makes the same "no rate increase" pitch. See our Measure H breakdown.

Today's two bond rates together: NUSD's $121.60 plus Los Rios's $20.80 equals $142.40 per $100,000 (county schedule). On a $450,000 assessment that is about $641 a year (4.5 × $142.40). Pass both, and that stack is designed to hold roughly steady into the 2050s instead of tapering.

If it fails

Existing NUSD bond taxes continue on current schedules, trending down after the mid-2030s and ending in 2050. The district would not get the $300 million, and County Counsel notes state matching funds are not guaranteed either way. The board could return with a new measure. The roofs and HVAC systems keep aging.

Is it on your bill?

Only taxable property inside Natomas Unified pays Measure D. Parts of North Natomas, including the Bridgecross Drive area in 95835, are in Twin Rivers Unified, home to Twin Rivers' Regency Park Elementary. Those parcels would not pay Measure D.

Check the school district bond line on your property tax bill (the county rate book labels it "NATOMAS UNIF GOB"), or look up your parcel through the county's e-PropTax site or the Assessor.

More local wallet coverage: SMUD and Link Logistics won't confirm a Southeast Sac data center. Ratepayers still have a stake.

Sources

Follow-up: Who's paying for Yes on Measure D